Research

My research statement can be viewed using this link.

Publications

How Taxes Affect Growth: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data with Meng Hsuan Hsieh, Laura Kawano, and Joel Slemrod. Link. (Orginally Chapter 3 of my dissertation).
Abstract: We evaluate the implications of different methodological choices for estimating the effect of tax policy on economic growth using cross-country panel data. We estimate the effect of personal, corporate, and value-added tax rate changes using alternative measures of policy shocks and employing estimation strategies both from the previous literature, and from newer methods that account for staggered treatments. Overall, we find imprecise estimates that do not credibly support claims that tax rate changes have a statistically robust medium-term impact on national income.

Other Dissertation Chapters

Chapter 1. Benefits Cliffs and Aggregate Fluctuations. Link. (Job market paper).
Abstract: Benefits cliffs — sudden decreases in public benefits that occur with a small increase in earnings — may inhibit upward mobility. I study the effect of a multitude of cliffs across the universe of benefits programs in nine southern US states on labor supply and aggregate fluctuations. Using the American Community Survey and proprietary data from the Georgia Center for Opportunity, I leverage geographic and household-structure variation. On average, individuals in households approaching benefits cliffs reduce their working hours by 40 hours annually. I then build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that replicates this result, where my model design allows me to accurately capture the benefits cliffs of the US tax-and-transfer system. I find the aggregate implications of benefits cliffs on output are small, but welfare gains from their elimination are large and concentrated. In a counterfactual model that smooths over benefits cliffs, output increases about 1.6% more on impact in response to an aggregate productivity shock compared to the baseline model with benefits cliffs, but the welfare gain to formerly constrained households doubles.

Chapter 2. Place-Based Policy and Optimal Income Transfers in a Federalist Framework with Labor Elasticities in Three Dimensions 
Abstract: What would an optimal income transfer system look like, taking into account the potential for both federal and state-level programs? I answer this question by building an optimal tax model that accounts for three labor elasticities: intensive, extensive, and mobility across states. I calibrate this model to the United States as a whole, as well as to individual US states. I find that, on average, states find it optimal to tax away federal income transfers, particularly when facing potential inter-state migration, reflecting fiscal constraints and a fear of attracting no or low-income earners. However, wealthier states supplement federal transfers due to increased fiscal space. States with larger pools of no-income earners aim to increase the differences of consumption between those with no and earned income to encourage employment. 

Works in Progress

Beyond Economic Cycles: Geopolitical Risk and Regional Divergence in International Student Mobility with Michelle Yin
Abstract: As geopolitical tensions and economic volatility increasingly affect higher education systems, understanding international student enrollment responses to macroeconomic shocks is critical for institutional planning. Using panel data spanning 1998-2023, this paper examines whether and how students use international education to manage risk in their home labor markets. We employ local projections to trace the dynamics of student flows following GDP contractions and geopolitical shocks. We find significant geographic variation in how students respond to risk. Students from OECD countries increase international enrollment during domestic recessions, hedging against labor market scarring by acquiring credentials internationally. In contrast, students from emerging economies show procyclical patterns: their outbound enrollment declines when home economies weaken. However, economic cycles have minimal effect on several regions’ international education choices, though they show heightened sensitivity to geopolitical conditions and uncertainty. Graduate and STEM students drive hedging behavior in developed countries, suggesting that specialized professional credentials serve counter-cyclical functions. These findings have immediate implications for institutional strategy: universities should develop risk-sensitive recruitment targeting, diversify enrollment across countries with different economic cycles, invest in international partnerships that create enrollment "stickiness," and prepare flexible program capacity for countercyclical demand surges.

Empirical Evidence of Cross-Cultural Competence and Career Outcomes of East Asian Students Within Dual Degree Programs with Michelle Yin.

Abstract: Global mobility restrictions, geopolitical tensions, and economic shifts have substantially reshaped international education in recent years. In this dynamic context, coupled with the rebounding of international student enrollments from the COVID-19 pandemic, dual degree programs serve as both bridges in international relations and platforms for cultural exchange. Such programs are increasingly recognized as critical for enhancing employability in a competitive global job market. East Asian students, who are historically pivotal to U.S. educational diversity, face unique challenges that these programs address. This study examines a dual master's degree program jointly offered by prestigious universities in Hong Kong and the United States, specifically focusing on how such programs impact intercultural competence and career readiness for East Asian students. We surveyed over 100 participants, gathering data on academic and logistical support, cultural adaptation, and career services. Our findings highlight the critical importance of comprehensive support systems and deep cultural engagement in enhancing both intercultural competence and employability. These findings provide empirical evidence to inform the optimization of international education strategies in an evolving global context.  

Dynamic Federalism: State Reactions to Federal Fiscal Policy and Implications for Fiscal Multipliers  
Abstract: How do states react to changes in federal fiscal policy? I answer this question using structural vector autoregressions in three specifications. I find that states react to unanticipated positive federal spending shocks by cutting expenditures and lowering taxes. In contrast, state spending reactions to unanticipated federal tax cuts are more ambiguous, but there is clearer evidence that states increase revenues in response to federal tax cuts. Both outcomes highlight the importance of state tax responses to fiscal stimulus, with a significant fraction of the federal spending multiplier likely driven by states themselves lowering revenues in response to an unanticipated positive federal spending shock. The results provide further insight into the mechanisms and effectiveness of fiscal multipliers.

Other Publications / White papers

Modeling the Economic Effects of Past Tax Bills with Stephen J. Entin and Scott Greenberg, Tax Foundation, 2016. Link.
From the Introduction: In this paper, we address the question, “What economic effects should we have expected from the major federal tax bills of the past several decades?” Our goal is to develop a baseline of expectations about the economic effects of past tax changes, to which the historical evidence can be compared. To do this, we employ the Taxes and Growth model, an economic model developed by the Tax Foundation, which is frequently used to evaluate tax proposals from members of Congress and presidential candidates. While the Taxes and Growth model is typically used to forecast the revenue and economic effects of proposed tax changes, it can also be used to “backcast” the effects of past tax changes, by using economic and taxpayer data stretching back to the 1960s... By modeling their economic effects, we hope to shed light on recent U.S. economic history and to contribute to the debate about the relationship between tax changes and the economy.

Referee Experience

Journal of Economics and Finance